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2021年2月22日上午，由中國(guó)公共外交協(xié)會(huì)、北京大學(xué)和中國(guó)人民大學(xué)聯(lián)合主辦的“對(duì)話合作，管控分歧——推動(dòng)中美關(guān)系重回正軌”藍(lán)廳論壇成功舉辦。國(guó)務(wù)委員兼外交部長(zhǎng)王毅出席并發(fā)表主旨演講。北京大學(xué)校長(zhǎng)郝平作為共同主辦方代表出席論壇開幕式并致辭。北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地是本次論壇的主要承辦方之一，承接多項(xiàng)會(huì)議籌備工作與中外嘉賓邀請(qǐng)事務(wù)，并主持分論壇三“重啟人文交流”。北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地多位高級(jí)顧問和學(xué)術(shù)委員受邀參加“藍(lán)廳論壇”，出席開幕式并在各分論壇發(fā)言。美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)亨利·保爾森（Henry Paulson）致辭應(yīng)邀出席論壇開幕式并致辭。

以下是美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)亨利·保爾森發(fā)言的主要內(nèi)容中英文對(duì)照版，與讀者們分享。

本文約3000字，讀完約6分鐘

保爾森強(qiáng)調(diào)，美中關(guān)系仍然是世界上最重要的雙邊關(guān)系。但美中兩國(guó)將長(zhǎng)期陷入戰(zhàn)略競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，在技術(shù)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融、軍事和意識(shí)形態(tài)等各個(gè)領(lǐng)域展開全面競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，而且兩國(guó)還將爭(zhēng)奪在第三國(guó)的影響力，包括主要的經(jīng)合組織經(jīng)濟(jì)體及“全球南方”的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體。這構(gòu)成了全球地緣政治以及國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)的新背景。我們迫切需要一個(gè)新的框架來反映中國(guó)、美國(guó)和世界發(fā)生的重大變化。對(duì)此，保爾森為這場(chǎng)新興的美中競(jìng)爭(zhēng)做出了三點(diǎn)建議：

Henry Paulson emphasizes that the United States and China continue to have the most important bilateral relationship in the world. But structural dynamics of power will ensure that US-China relations are fraught for the foreseeable future. From now on, this relationship is going to be competitive in every domain – technological, economic, financial, military, and ideological. And our nations will also compete for influence in third countries, from the major OECD economies to the emerging economies of the Global South. And it comprises the new context of global geopolitics—and of international economics. We urgently need a new framework to reflect the major changes occurring in China, the US, and the world. When Henry Paulson looks at this emerging US-China competition, he reaches three conclusions:

首先，為了最大限度地降低發(fā)生破壞性沖突的可能性，并在共同關(guān)心的領(lǐng)域取得進(jìn)展，美國(guó)和中國(guó)必須決定如何以及在哪些領(lǐng)域競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，如何避免沖突。盡可能健康的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，不進(jìn)行不必要的對(duì)抗，符合兩國(guó)的利益。

First, to minimize the likelihood of debilitating conflict and to make progress on areas of mutual interest, the US and China must decide how and where to compete and how to avoid conflict. If we don’t, the world will be a very dangerous place. So it is in each of our interests that competition be as healthy aspossible, without unnecessary confrontation.

其次，出于對(duì)國(guó)家安全的關(guān)切，美中兩國(guó)將面臨越來越大的脫鉤壓力。以技術(shù)為例，他認(rèn)為這將是美中關(guān)系向前發(fā)展的核心挑戰(zhàn)。兩國(guó)都有必要封存*高科技，以維護(hù)國(guó)家安全。但如果走得太遠(yuǎn)，就會(huì)形成他所說的經(jīng)濟(jì)鐵幕，使供應(yīng)鏈脫鉤，并在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中建立不兼容的規(guī)則和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，阻礙創(chuàng)新和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

*iGCU注：“封存”一詞英文原文為“sequester”，應(yīng)譯為“隔絕”。

Second, our two nations will face increasing pressures to decouple, driven primarily by national security concerns. Take technology, for example—the area that he believes will be the core challenge in the US-China relationship moving forward. It is clear that each of our nations will, of necessity, sequester high technologies to protect our national security. But if this goes too far, it will create what's called an Economic Iron Curtain, one that decouples supply chains and erects incompatible rules and standards throughout the global economy, impeding innovation and economic growth.

第三，即便沒有合作，至少要有一定的協(xié)調(diào)，否則有些問題根本就無法緩解和解決。我們應(yīng)該把重點(diǎn)放在一些比較容易的問題上，以建立合作勢(shì)頭和相互信任，并在此基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)前進(jìn)。

Third, there are problems that we simply cannot mitigate and solve without at least some coordination, if not cooperation. Instead, we should focus on some of the easier issues to develop momentum and trust, which we can build on moving forward.

重啟美中合作的重點(diǎn)領(lǐng)域

談到美中可以立即開展合作的領(lǐng)域，他表示，首先希望兩國(guó)能夠達(dá)成一致，大面積取消對(duì)學(xué)生和學(xué)者交流的簽證限制，這能促進(jìn)創(chuàng)新，也符合公眾利益。

另一個(gè)合作領(lǐng)域是阻止新冠疫情。他建議，第一步是盡可能地協(xié)調(diào)疫苗的分配，需要確保所有國(guó)家都能得到足夠數(shù)量的經(jīng)批準(zhǔn)的有效疫苗，否則全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇將減緩。

其次，兩國(guó)應(yīng)該爭(zhēng)取在環(huán)境和氣候方面取得進(jìn)展。

Talking about areas where the United States and China can cooperate immediately, Henry Paulson hopes we can agree to halt the proliferation of visa restrictions on student and scholarly exchanges that can promote innovation in the public interest.

Another obvious area for cooperation should be on stopping the pandemic. One clear first step is to coordinate – to the degree possible –on vaccination distribution. It is necessary to ensure that all countries receive approved andeffective vaccinations in adequate quantities – otherwise, it will slow down theglobal economic recovery.

the United States and China should also aim for progress on the environment and climate.

美中氣候合作前景

保爾森表示，很高興美國(guó)重新加入了《巴黎協(xié)定》，而中國(guó)的目標(biāo)是到2060年實(shí)現(xiàn)碳中和，但兩國(guó)目前的行動(dòng)都無法實(shí)現(xiàn)避免災(zāi)難所需的全球溫控目標(biāo)。如果美國(guó)和中國(guó)這兩個(gè)世界上最大的排放國(guó)以互補(bǔ)的方式合作，改變氣候軌跡將容易得多。

第一，美國(guó)和中國(guó)應(yīng)共同努力，重新思考國(guó)際氣候治理問題。需要有懲罰力度的治理結(jié)構(gòu)，正視搭便車的問題，并為遏制排放創(chuàng)造激勵(lì)措施。

第二，兩國(guó)應(yīng)推動(dòng)取消環(huán)境商品和服務(wù)的關(guān)稅。

第三，兩國(guó)應(yīng)該共同努力，在減少新興市場(chǎng)包括“一帶一路 ”國(guó)家的碳排放方面取得進(jìn)展，并鼓勵(lì)綠色發(fā)展的最佳實(shí)踐和最高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。這也是他創(chuàng)立的保爾森基金會(huì)與中方密切合作制定自愿性綠色投資原則的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域。

第四，兩國(guó)都需要提供激勵(lì)措施，引導(dǎo)私營(yíng)部門的資本流向減少碳排放、支持綠色發(fā)展和重視自然的創(chuàng)新解決方案。

第五，兩國(guó)應(yīng)當(dāng)聯(lián)合投資那些有可能幫助我們避免最不利的氣候結(jié)果、改變游戲規(guī)則的技術(shù)，哪怕這些技術(shù)在商業(yè)上沒有效益。

第六，兩國(guó)應(yīng)該共同努力，在中國(guó)、美國(guó)和世界各地部署清潔技術(shù)。

Henry Paulson is pleased the US has rejoined the Paris Agreement, and that China has targeted carbon neutrality by 2060—but neither country is on track tomeeting the global temperature goals needed to avert disaster. And changing the climate trajectory will be much easier if the US and China—the world’s largest emitters—are working in complementary ways.

For one, the United States and China should work together to rethink international climate governance. Aggressive voluntary climate targets are necessary but insufficient to drive meaningful change. We instead need a structure with penalties—one that deals squarely with the problem of free-riding and creates incentives to curb emissions.

Second, the United States and China should push toward lifting tariffs on environmental goods and services.

Third, the United States and China should work together to make progress on reducing the carbon emissions in emerging markets, including in the Belt and Road countries, and encourage best practices and high standards for green development. This is an area where his Institute, the Paulson Institute, has worked closely with the Chinese on developing voluntary green investment principles.

Fourth, the United States and China each need to provide incentives to channel private sector capital into innovative solutions that reduce carbon emissions, supportgreen development and value nature.

Fifth, the United States and China should make joint investments in game-changing technologies that have the potential to help us avoid the most adverse climate outcomes, even if they are not commercially viable.

Sixth, the United States and China should work together to deploy clean technologies in China, the United States, and around the world.

更廣泛的美中經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系

如果兩國(guó)關(guān)系不能取得進(jìn)展，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中最重要、增長(zhǎng)最快、規(guī)模最大的領(lǐng)域?qū)⒈磺袛噘Q(mào)易和投資的通道，這對(duì)美國(guó)、中國(guó)和世界都不利。為此，保爾森建議：

近期，兩國(guó)應(yīng)該全面落實(shí)第一階段的貿(mào)易協(xié)定，并開始全面的雙邊談判，重點(diǎn)解決市場(chǎng)扭曲問題，采取他所說的“定向?qū)Φ取?戰(zhàn)略。重點(diǎn)關(guān)注對(duì)等規(guī)則、市場(chǎng)準(zhǔn)入和行動(dòng)，但不是建立在機(jī)械和條件反射的基礎(chǔ)上，而是考慮是否符合美國(guó)工人、農(nóng)民和牧場(chǎng)主的利益。從中國(guó)的立場(chǎng)來看，也要符合中國(guó)人的利益。

另外，希望兩國(guó)能夠重新建立戰(zhàn)略經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)話，以應(yīng)對(duì)重大的長(zhǎng)期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)，同時(shí)在更緊迫的問題上取得進(jìn)展。

從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，兩國(guó)應(yīng)該共同努力，更新和改進(jìn)全球貿(mào)易體系，首先是改革世貿(mào)組織。

最后，美國(guó)應(yīng)與主要經(jīng)濟(jì)盟友和中國(guó)合作，加強(qiáng)數(shù)字貿(mào)易、技術(shù)、知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán)、環(huán)境商品和服務(wù)的規(guī)則并使其現(xiàn)代化。

If the United States and China fail to make progress, some of the most important, fastest growing, and largest parts of the global economy will be cut off from trade and investment to the detriment of America, China, and the world. Henry Paulson suggests:

In the immediate term, the United States and China should fully implement the Phase I trade agreement, and begin comprehensive bilateral negotiations focused on addressing market distortions, with a strategy he calls “targeted reciprocity.” This is a focus on reciprocal rules, market access, and actions—not on a mechanical and reflexive basis, but in a way that makes sensefor American workers, farmers, and ranchers—and, from China’s standpoint, for Chinese.

Henry Paulson is also hopeful that the two countries can reestablish a Strategic Economic Dialogue to address major long term macroeconomic challenges, while making progress on the more immediate issues.

Over the longer term, the United States and China should work together to update and improve the global trading system, starting with fixing the WTO.

The US, working with its major economic allies and China, should strengthen and modernize rules for digital trade, technology, intellectual property, and environmental goods and services.

背景鏈接

“藍(lán)廳論壇”是中國(guó)外交部創(chuàng)建的政府、企業(yè)、學(xué)界、媒體及公眾等中外各界溝通交流的平臺(tái)，旨在為社會(huì)各界就中國(guó)外交政策等共同關(guān)心的問題進(jìn)行討論建立新渠道。因定期在外交部南樓“藍(lán)廳”舉行，稱為“藍(lán)廳論壇”。

此次論壇是北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地第三次參與組織北京大學(xué)與中國(guó)公共外交協(xié)會(huì)共同主辦的高級(jí)別會(huì)議，分別為：2020年7月9日，以“互相尊重，信任合作——把握中美關(guān)系的正確方向”為主題的中美智庫媒體視頻會(huì)議；2020年9月28日，以“后疫情時(shí)代的國(guó)際秩序和全球治理”為主題的第十八屆藍(lán)廳論壇；以及此次的“對(duì)話合作，管控分歧——推動(dòng)中美關(guān)系重回正軌”藍(lán)廳論壇。

北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地是歷次合作的主要承辦方?；厥怯山逃颗鷾?zhǔn)設(shè)立并由北京大學(xué)承辦的集教學(xué)科研、政策咨詢與人才培訓(xùn)為一體的中國(guó)特色新型智庫。目前，基地是北大唯一一家教育部設(shè)立的人文交流綜合智庫，服務(wù)于人文交流“十大機(jī)制”，引領(lǐng)國(guó)內(nèi)人文交流研究的高地，統(tǒng)籌、協(xié)調(diào)和推進(jìn)我國(guó)中外人文交流事業(yè)的建設(shè)。2020年1月，經(jīng)教育部審批同意，“北京大學(xué)中美人文交流研究基地”更名為“北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地”（Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding，iGCU）。2020年12月，北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地入選2020中國(guó)智庫索引（CTTI）來源智庫。2021年1月，北京大學(xué)中外人文交流研究基地上榜“2020亞洲大國(guó)（中國(guó)、印度、日本、韓國(guó)）百強(qiáng)智庫榜單”（排名第76位，在上榜的中國(guó)智庫中名列第17位）。

文章來源：保爾森基金會(huì)

原標(biāo)題：《【藍(lán)廳論壇】美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)保爾森：重啟中美合作應(yīng)該這樣做（中英文對(duì)照）》

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